Adobe has published its forecast for the 2026 holiday season, and the headline is a record. Here is what the numbers say, and what they mean for the operations side of an ecommerce business between now and January.
What Adobe forecast
Adobe expects US consumers to spend $275.1 billion online from November 1 to December 31, 2026, up 6.7% from last year. Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is forecast at $47.5 billion, or 17.3% of the season. Cyber Monday, on November 30, remains the biggest day at a forecast $15.1 billion, with Black Friday at $12.9 billion and Thanksgiving at $6.9 billion.
The season is also starting earlier. Adobe forecasts $95.8 billion in online spending in October, up 8%, including $9.9 billion during the October 6 to 7 Prime Day event. Adobe says this pre-season activity “has changed the shape of the holiday season.” Discounts are forecast to peak at up to 30% off during Cyber Week and to stay at up to 10% to 15% through December.
Adobe also expects mobile to account for 57.4% of season spending, buy now, pay later spending to reach $21.3 billion, and traffic to retail sites from AI services to rise 130% from last year.
Putting the numbers in context
Adobe’s forecast measures US online spending at retail sites for November and December. Other forecasts cover different windows and channels, so the totals are not directly comparable. What matters for operations is the shape Adobe describes: a strong October, a concentrated Cyber Week and steady discounting through December. That shape determines when inventory, staff and fulfillment capacity need to be in place.
What this means for your ecommerce
The first implication is that peak is longer. With October spending growing faster than the season overall, the demand that used to arrive in late November is spread from early October to late December. Operations teams need inventory positioned and fulfillment partners staffed weeks earlier than a traditional peak plan assumes.
The second is that the sharpest spike is still concentrated. More than a sixth of the season’s online spend lands in five days. That is when warehouse and 3PL capacity is most likely to run out, so brands need to know their daily limits and have overflow plans and routing rules ready before Thanksgiving week.
The third is that inventory accuracy carries more weight. Discounts running into December keep demand high late in the season, when inventory is thinner and spread across more locations. Real-time, per-location availability shared with every channel is what keeps late orders from being accepted against stock that is no longer there.
The fourth is that more shoppers arrive through AI services. When AI assistants recommend products, they rely on the availability and delivery information a brand publishes. Accurate inventory and delivery promises are what those assistants read.
The October start, in practice
An earlier peak changes the operations calendar. Inbound inventory that would normally land in early November needs to be received and sellable in early October. Seasonal labor at warehouses and 3PLs needs to be trained before the first big promotion. And the systems that route orders and publish inventory need their peak configuration, including volume caps, overflow rules and holiday cutoffs, live weeks earlier than last year.
How to prepare
A few steps help regardless of category. Confirm daily capacity with each warehouse and 3PL for October, Cyber Week and December, and agree on what happens above it. Position inventory for the earlier start, so stock is received and sellable before the November promotions. Set routing rules and volume caps for the highest-volume days, and connect any overflow location now. Keep inventory and delivery promises synchronized across every channel. And plan for January: a longer season means returns and restocking will also run later.
Pipe17, the Order Operations Platform, connects sales channels, fulfillment and back-office systems, so brands can see inventory by location, route orders across warehouses, 3PLs and stores, and keep every channel selling against accurate availability through the whole season.
Frequently Asked Questions
Adobe’s 2026 holiday shopping forecast is $275.1 billion in US online spending from November 1 to December 31, 2026, up 6.7% from 2025. Adobe expects Cyber Week to account for $47.5 billion and Cyber Monday to be the biggest single day at $15.1 billion.
Cyber Monday 2026 is November 30. Adobe forecasts it will be the biggest online shopping day of the season, with $15.1 billion in US online spending, up 6.2% from last year.
The 2026 holiday shopping season is starting earlier, according to Adobe, which forecasts $95.8 billion in US online spending in October, up 8% from last year, including $9.9 billion during the October 6 to 7 Prime Day event. Adobe says this pre-season activity has changed the shape of the holiday season.
The 2026 holiday forecast means fulfillment needs to be ready earlier and for a sharper spike. Brands should confirm daily capacity with their warehouses and 3PLs, position inventory before the November promotions, set routing rules and overflow plans for Cyber Week, and keep inventory accurate across every channel.
Adobe forecasts that Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, will account for $47.5 billion of US online holiday spending in 2026, or 17.3% of the season total, up 7.4% from last year.
